Robust and resilient renovation solutions in different climate change scenarios
Abstract
Building renovation is currently urgent in order to decrease the energy consumption of a building stock. In order to achieve robust renovation scenarios, uncertainty quantification is needed. Climate change scenarios are important factors and need to be included in the analysis. In this paper, three climate change scenarios are applied probabilistically for a renovation scenario using dimensionality reduction techniques and further uncertainty propagation. The results show that RCP2.6 provides more robust results and saves on average 2. 105 CHF and 2. 105kgCO2eq. in a building life cycle comparing to RCP 8.5. The analysis under climate change is also compared to the probabilistic calculations under current climate and the results show the underestimation of both costs and environmental impacts when climate change is not included. It can also be clearly seen that even under the best case of RCP 2.6, building renovation is urgently needed to decrease the environmental impacts and costs. Mehr anzeigen
Persistenter Link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000451996Publikationsstatus
publishedExterne Links
Zeitschrift / Serie
IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental ScienceBand
Seiten / Artikelnummer
Verlag
IOP PublishingKonferenz
Thema
LCA; LCC; Uncertainty Quantification; Climate changeOrganisationseinheit
03972 - Habert, Guillaume / Habert, Guillaume
03962 - Sudret, Bruno / Sudret, Bruno
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
Anmerkungen
Due to the Coronavirus (COVID-19) the conference was conducted virtually.