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Reliability analysis of wind turbines using manifold-NARX surrogate models
(2023)Modeling the dynamic response of systems is essential for structural health monitoring, reliability analysis or design optimization. Structures such as wind turbines, tall buildings or long bridges are submitted to transient excitation such as ground motions or wave and wind loads, which inherently showcase aleatory uncertainties, however. To address uncertainty quantification questions such as sensitivity or reliability analyses, many ...Other Conference Item -
mNARX - A novel surrogate model for the uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems
(2023)Modelling the dynamic response of civil structures is vital for many applications, including structural health monitoring, reliability analysis and design optimization. These systems often feature responses governed by highly uncertain exogenous excitations, for example, ground motions, wind, or wave loads. To quantify the effects of this uncertainty, many evaluations of the underlying numerical models are usually required. Therefore, ...Other Conference Item -
Constructing confidence and prediction intervals for multifidelity surrogate models involving noisy data
(2023)Nowadays, computer simulations, or white-box models, are indispensable to model complex engineering systems that need to be reliable and safe. White-box models can provide accurate predictions when there is a precise underlying physical model, but they may be hard to obtain for highly complex engineering systems, and they often fail to capture reality in its entirety. Sometimes, experimental data are available for the same system. Such ...Other Conference Item -
A data-driven surrogate model for uncertainty quantification of dynamical systems
(2023)Surrogate models have become a standard tool in uncertainty quantification to emulate the response of real-world systems at a low computational cost. Within the HIPERWIND EU project, we recently proposed a class of surrogate models that can accurately model the time-dependent response of dynamical state- and control system-dependent structures excited by high-dimensional exogenous inputs, such as wind turbines (Dimitrov et al. (2022)). ...Other Conference Item -
Benchmark of active learning methods for structural reliability analysis
(2022)Other Conference Item -
A cost-aware and sensitivity-based active learning algorithm for system reliability
(2022)The safety of structures is generally assessed using structural reliability analysis within a probabilistic framework. The parameters describing the system, which are affected by uncertainties, are represented by random variables and a set of so-called limit-state functions determine whether the system fails. The goal of the analysis is then to estimate the probability of failure of the system. Many techniques have been developed to ...Other Conference Item -
Autoregressive surrogate models of high-dimensional time-dependent wind turbine simulations for uncertainty quantification
(2022)Global adoption of wind as a renewable energy source has increased dramatically over the past decades. With the growing number of wind turbines being installed worldwide, safety concerns and the need to reduce turbine installation and maintenance costs, especially in large wind farms, have become more and more relevant. Wind turbine design is primarily driven by climatic conditions such as wind speed, turbulence, and for offshore ...Other Conference Item -
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Stochastic spectral likelihood embedding for the calibration of heat transfer models
(2021)Other Conference Item -
Vine copulas for uncertainty quantification: why and how
(2019)Systems subject to uncertain inputs produce uncertain responses. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) deals with the estimation of the response statistics of systems for which a runnable computational model is available. Problems of interest are those where the computational model is expensive, making Monte Carlo approaches unfeasible and thus calling for cheaper solutions that require fewer runs. In these settings, an accurate representation ...Other Conference Item