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Do IMF and World Bank Programs Induce Government Crises? An Empirical Analysis
(2008)KOF Working PapersWe examine whether and under which circumstances World Bank projects and IMF programs affect the likelihood of major government crises. Using a sample of more than 90 developing countries over the period 1970-2002, we find that crises are on average more likely as a consequence of Bank and Fund involvement. While the effects of the IMF to some extent depend on the model specification, those of the World Bank are shown to be robust to the ...Working Paper -
Fifty Years of Urban Accessibility: The Impact of Urban Railway Network on the Land Gradient in Industrializing Berlin
(2008)KOF Working PapersAs the first to use an archival data set on historical land values of Berlin, Germany, from 1890 to 1936, we exploit exogenous variation in transport technology in order to test the validity of the monocentric city model. Endogenously determining the CBD, we conduct cross-section and time-difference analysis and model the land gradient in terms of straight-line distance and travel times. A counterfactual scenario indicates that a large ...Working Paper -
The NAICU and the Phillips Curve – An Approach Based on Micro Data
(2008)KOF Working PapersIn this paper we propose a straightforward method to derive a non-accelerating inflation capacity utilisation rate (NAICU) based on micro data. We condition the current capacity utilisation of firms on their current and planned price adjustments. The non-accelerating inflation capacity utilisation rate is then defined as the rate where a firm feels no price adjustment pressure. One of the main advantages is that this methodology uses ...Working Paper -
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Contacts in a shrunken world
(2008)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungBased on a substantial new Swiss survey of personal networks, this paper analyses the impact of precisely-measured geographical distance on the frequency and market shares of different modes of interaction between the respondents and their contacts (face-to-face, phone, email and SMS texting). Geographical distance influences how people interact today, as it did in the past. The effort involved in the different modes of contact (face-to-face, ...Working Paper -
Does the IMF Help or Hurt? The Effect of IMF Programs on the Likelihood and Outcome of Currency Crises
(2008)KOF Working PapersUsing panel data for 68 countries over the period 1975-2002 this paper examines how IMF programs, disbursed loans, and compliance with conditionality affect the risk of currency crises and the outcome of such crises. Specifically, we investigate whether countries with previous IMF intervention are more likely to experience currency crises. In a second step, we analyze the IMF’s impact on a country’s decision to adjust the exchange rate, ...Working Paper -
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