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Employment Effect of Innovation
(2017)KOF Working PapersThe present paper estimates and decomposes the employment effect of innovation by R&D intensity levels. Our micro-econometric analysis is based on a large international panel data set from the EU Industrial R&D Investment Scoreboard. Employing flexible semi-parametric methods – the generalised propensity score – allows us to recover the full functional relationship between the R&D investment and firm employment, and to address important ...Working Paper -
Towards an Energy Efficient and Climate Compatible Future Swiss Transportation System
(2017)Working Paper -
A note on the different interpretation of the correlation parameters in the Bivariate Probit and the Recursive Bivariate Probit
(2017)Economics Working Paper SeriesThis note makes the point that, if a Bivariate Probit (BP) model is estimated on data arising from a Recursive Bivariate Probit (RBP) process, the resulting BP correlation parameter is a weighted average of the RBP correlation parameter and the parameter associated to the endogenous binary variable. Two corollaries follow this proposition: i) a zero correlation parameter in a BP model, usually interpreted as evidence of independence between ...Working Paper -
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Forecasting GDP growth from outer space
(2017)KOF Working PapersWe evaluate the usefulness of satellite-based data on nighttime lights for forecasting GDP growth across a global sample of countries, proposing innovative location-based indicators to extract new predictive information from the lights data. Our findings are generally favorable to the use of the night lights data to improve the accuracy of model-based forecasts. We also find a substantial degree of heterogeneity across countries on the ...Working Paper -
Uncertainty quantification and global sensitivity analysis for economic models
(2017)Economics Working Paper SeriesSensitivity analysis assesses the influence of input parameters on the conclusion of a model. Traditional analysis methods - based on evaluating the model at a reference parameter vector and changing one parameter at a time - are local, linear, and usually do not capture interactions among the parameters. By contrast, the global sensitivity analysis that we present summarizes the parameters’ importance over a range of values, fully capturing ...Working Paper -
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Buy-and-Hold Property for Fully Incomplete Markets when Super-replicating Markovian Claims
(2017)arXivWorking Paper -
Perfect Prediction in Normal Form: Superrational Thinking Extended to Non-Symmetric Games
(2017)Working Paper