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Lack of evidence that ursodeoxycholic acids effects on the gut microbiome influence colorectal adenoma risk
(2017)bioRxivObjective We previously reported that Ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA), a therapeutic bile acid, reduces risk for advanced colorectal adenoma in men but not women. Interactions between the gut microbiome and fecal bile acid composition as a factor in colon cancer neoplasia have been postulated but evidence is limited to small cohorts and animal studies. Design Using banked stool samples collected as part of a phase III randomized clinical ...Working Paper -
Guaranteed error control bounds for the stabilised space-time IgA approximations to parabolic problems
(2017)RICAM-ReportReport -
Should one follow movements in the oil price or in money supply? Forecasting quarterly GDP growth in Russia with higher-frequency indicators
(2017)BOFIT Discussion PapersGDP forecasters face tough choices over which leading indicators to follow and which forecasting models to use. To help resolve these issues, we examine a range of monthly indicators to forecast quarterly GDP growth in a major emerging economy, Russia. Numerous useful indicators are identified and forecast pooling of three model classes (bridge models, MIDAS models and unrestricted mixed-frequency models) are shown to outperform simple ...Working Paper -
Flood Risk Belief Heterogeneity and Coastal Home Price Dynamics: Going Under Water?
(2017)NBER Working Paper SeriesHow will climate risk beliefs affect coastal housing market dynamics? This paper provides both theoretical and empirical evidence: First, we build a dynamic housing market model with heterogeneity in home types, consumer preferences, and flood risk beliefs. The model incorporates a Bayesian learning mechanism allowing agents to update their beliefs depending on whether flood events occur. Second, to quantify these elements, we implement ...Working Paper -
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