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Variability in Transport Microsimulations Investigated With the Multi-Agent Transport Simulation MATSim
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungTransport microsimulations are stochastic. Randomness is, for example, introduced by the error terms of discrete choice models, a common component in utility-based microsimulations. This leads to random variability in results at all resolution levels. This paper’s objectives is an analysis of this variability. As a very common and important aggregate measure in transport planning network link volumes are analyzed, based on MATSim simulation ...Working Paper -
High-resolution destination choice in agent-based demand models
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungThis paper describes the modeling of destination choices for discretionary activities in a multiagent transport simulation, using MATSim as an example. MATSim is based on utility maximization and its utility function has always been deterministic. Unobserved heterogeneity is now added to the utility function through a random error term, meaning that MATSim is now fully compatible with discrete choice theory. Real-world simulation results ...Working Paper -
Understanding overlapping functional commuting regions with confidence ellipses and social network methods
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungFunctional regions are becoming more and more prominent in spatial planning policies. In this study we assume, that it will be problematic to clearly delimitate these regions in the future. Functional regions will increasingly overlap, because of increasing linkages of functional flows. This study explores different approaches of identifying about these overlapping or fuzzy functional regions, where some municipalities belong to more ...Working Paper -
Investigating the influence of the environmentalism and variety seeking on mode choice
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungIn the transport modelling community, there is a growing understanding that socio-economic attributes are not sufficient to characterise travellers and make forecasts about their travel behaviour. Therefore, an increasing number of studies has recently been published that integrates latent variables representing attitudes, perceptions and preferences into choice models. Since it is impossible to measure these latent variables directly, ...Working Paper -
Der Einfluss sozialer Kontakte in grossräumigen Evakuierungsereignissen
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungIn eine adäquate Simulation grossräumiger Evakuierungsereignisse müssen soziale Interaktionseffekte einfliessen. Um einen ersten Eindruck über relevante Effekte sowie Stärke und Richtung sozialer Einflüsse zu erhalten, wurde ein Teil der verfügbaren Literatur zu grossräumigen Evakuierungsereignissen gesichtet. Die dominanten Verhaltensmuster scheinen dabei zu sein: Kernfamilien evakuieren gemeinsam, die Teilnahme an Evakuierungen ist höher ...Report -
Transport simulations
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungHow does knowledge about a traffic system influence the behavior of people and the state of the traffic system they are acting in? The individual perception of the current traffic situation exerts an essential influence on the decision-making of road users and—in return—their behaviour effects the state of the traffic system. The key element of modeling traffic systems is to understand the impact of different personal knowledge levels ...Working Paper -
Within-day replanning of exceptional events
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungTypical software that is used for the simulation of traffic behavior focuses on scenarios that describe common situations like an ordinary working day without remarkable incidents. To simulate such scenarios, iterative approaches are used. They assume that the simulated people adapt to the results of the previous iterations. Such iterative approaches produce meaningful results for various scenarios as long as only typical, repetitive ...Working Paper -
Modeling household fleet choice as a function of fuel price using a multiple discrete-continuous choice model
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungIn this Paper, a new model of fleet choice for households is presented that uses the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model as a framework. The aim of the model is to establish a model to allocate car types to activity based microscopic agent based transport simulations. What is new in the presented model, is that in addition to socioeconomic attributes of households, the choice is also influenced by fuel price. To model ...Working Paper -
How to model the gains from infrastructure investment?
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungThis paper is a reply to Metz recent book (2008), in which he pointed out, that current costbenefit practise assumes that short-term gains provide a full picture of the gains from investment. It is also an attempt to sketch the model, which is needed to give the decision makers an idea of the long term impacts of the their short term choices. This would help to avoid overly myopic decisions.<br/>The paper sketches a thought model of how ...Working Paper -
Stated response and multiple discrete-continuous choice models
(2011)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungIn sophisticated transport models choice modeling is used to capture a wide range of behaviors, such as mode choice, fleet choice or route choice. A newly developed approach to improve realism is the multiple discrete-continuous extreme value (MDCEV) model, which allows to model the allocation of continuous amounts of a consumption good. Before using this models in overall frameworks, knowledge about the accuracy of the forecasting procedure ...Working Paper