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Belarus in Upheaval: Three Scenarios
(2021)CSS Policy PerspectivesAs Alexander Lukashenko has become a toxic figure at home and abroad, three scenarios for the regime’s future are perceptible. Each has important foreign policy implications, and Russia is key in all of them, argues Benno Zogg in this CSS Policy Perspective. Three scenarios are foreseeable: a managed revolution removing Lukashenko, a dictatorship following the current trajectory, and a managed transition as a most likely long-term scenario. ...Other Publication -
China’s Rise Can Unite NATO
(2020)CSS Policy PerspectivesThe rise of China gives the alliance renewed purpose after years of deadlock. It falls on Europe to invest in the opportunity that the Biden administration offers, argues Henrik Larsen in this CSS Policy Perspective. A new transatlantic bargain is needed, in which Europe invests more in the continent’s own security in return for the US engaging in a transatlantic dialogue about how best to counter China as a threat to resilience and liberal ...Other Publication -
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Digital Disinformation: Evidence from Ukraine
(2021)CSS Analyses in Security PolicyThere is a pervasive fear that information technology enhances the effectiveness of destabilizing disinformation campaigns. Yet evidence from Ukraine, the paradigmatic case of “hybrid war”, indicates this threat is overstated. Rather, traditional media remain far more influential. The prevailing focus on technology hampers both analysis and the development of effective counterstrategies.Other Publication -
Der Schoggibrunnen sprudelt – dank Roger Federer
(2020)SRF Regionaljournal Zürich SchaffhausenOther Publication -
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CSDP Missions: Addressing their Limited Reform Impact
(2021)CSS Analyses in Security PolicyThe CSDP missions in Ukraine, Kosovo, and Iraq operate from the right diagnosis of the need to strengthen the security sectors and the rule of law. However, their limited impact so far raises questions as to whether the EU is able to increase the missions’ leverage in the host countries and thereby facilitate the desired reforms.Other Publication