Ex-ante identification of policy interventions to secure a functioning ecological infrastructure: A participatory Bayesian Network approach in Switzerland
Open access
Date
2021-06Type
- Other Conference Item
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Assessing Ecological Infrastructure (EI) necessitates value judgements with respect to the importance of different components such as ecosystem services and biodiversity. As such it is crucial that assessments as well as the planning of policies to maintain EI incorporate the participation of relevant stakeholders. However, implementing this can be problematic as the quantification of EI typically involves modelling approaches that are in-transparent to nonexperts. Bayesian Networks (BNs) can overcome this by allowing for the integration of knowledge from closed form solutions and machine learning techniques with that from stakeholder elicitation. Furthermore, BNs allow for increased transparency of modelling processes through their representation as directed casual diagrams, with the possibility of spatially visualizing results including attendant uncertainties. These features allow for meaningful stakeholder participation in the simulation of EI thereby fostering increased stewardship. This research demonstrates this through a prototypical dynamic, spatially explicit, Bayesian Network (BN) incorporating stakeholder participation to simulate future EI in Geneva, Switzerland. First, stakeholder input informs the interactions of actors in the implementation of policies linked to EI conceptualized through Contextual Interaction Theory. This is operationalized alongside historical patterns to model future Land Use Land Cover change (LULCC) which in turn is used to predict future values of ecosystem service supply and biodiversity outcomes. Stakeholders then weight these outcomes into an aggregated measure of EI that reflects their views on the importance of each aspect. This participatory BN is first used in a forecasting capacity to simulate the impact of policy interventions against a business-as-usual scenario. Following this, backwards inference is utilized to identify pathways to securing stakeholder defined visions of a functioning EI. The results of both processes highlight the trade-offs that occur between different prioritizations of EI when attempting to optimize policy interventions to manage natural resources for the future. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000593545Publication status
publishedPublisher
ETH ZurichEvent
Organisational unit
03823 - Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne / Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
Notes
Conference lecture on June 9, 2021.More
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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