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dc.contributor.author
Staffell, Iain
dc.contributor.author
Pfenninger, Stefan
dc.date.accessioned
2019-12-06T10:53:27Z
dc.date.available
2017-06-12T11:59:08Z
dc.date.available
2019-12-06T10:53:27Z
dc.date.issued
2016-11-01
dc.identifier.issn
0360-5442
dc.identifier.issn
1873-6785
dc.identifier.other
10.1016/j.energy.2016.08.068
en_US
dc.identifier.uri
http://hdl.handle.net/20.500.11850/120087
dc.identifier.doi
10.3929/ethz-b-000120087
dc.description.abstract
Reanalysis models are rapidly gaining popularity for simulating wind power output due to their convenience and global coverage. However, they should only be relied upon once thoroughly proven. This paper reports the first international validation of reanalysis for wind energy, testing NASA's MERRA and MERRA-2 in 23 European countries. Both reanalyses suffer significant spatial bias, overestimating wind output by 50% in northwest Europe and underestimating by 30% in the Mediterranean. We derive national correction factors, and show that after calibration national hourly output can be modelled with R2 above 0.95. Our underlying data are made freely available to aid future research. We then assess Europe's wind resources with twenty-year simulations of the current and potential future fleets. Europe's current average capacity factor is 24.2%, with countries ranging from 19.5% (Germany) to 32.4% (Britain). Capacity factors are rising due to improving technology and locations; for example, Britain's wind fleet is now 23% more productive than in 2005. Based on the current planning pipeline, we estimate Europe's average capacity factor could increase by nearly a third to 31.3%. Countries with large stakes in the North Sea will see significant gains, with Britain's average capacity factor rising to 39.4% and Germany's to 29.1%.
en_US
dc.format
application/pdf
en_US
dc.language.iso
en
en_US
dc.publisher
Elsevier
en_US
dc.rights.uri
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
dc.subject
Capacity factor
en_US
dc.subject
Energy yield
en_US
dc.subject
Europe
en_US
dc.subject
Reanalysis
en_US
dc.subject
Wind farm
en_US
dc.subject
Wind power
en_US
dc.title
Using bias-corrected reanalysis to simulate current and future wind power output
en_US
dc.type
Journal Article
dc.rights.license
Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
dc.date.published
2016-09-02
ethz.journal.title
Energy
ethz.journal.volume
114
en_US
ethz.journal.abbreviated
Energy
ethz.pages.start
1224
en_US
ethz.pages.end
1239
en_US
ethz.version.deposit
publishedVersion
en_US
ethz.grant
Desertection - Social challenges of trans-Mediterranean renewable power cooperation
en_US
ethz.identifier.wos
ethz.identifier.scopus
ethz.identifier.nebis
000010764
ethz.publication.place
Amsterdam
en_US
ethz.publication.status
published
en_US
ethz.leitzahl
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09451 - Patt, Anthony G. / Patt, Anthony G.
en_US
ethz.leitzahl.certified
ETH Zürich::00002 - ETH Zürich::00012 - Lehre und Forschung::00007 - Departemente::02350 - Dep. Umweltsystemwissenschaften / Dep. of Environmental Systems Science::02723 - Institut für Umweltentscheidungen / Institute for Environmental Decisions::09451 - Patt, Anthony G. / Patt, Anthony G.
ethz.grant.agreementno
313553
ethz.grant.fundername
EC
ethz.grant.funderDoi
10.13039/501100000780
ethz.grant.program
FP7
ethz.date.deposited
2017-06-12T12:07:02Z
ethz.source
ECIT
ethz.identifier.importid
imp593654add0a5176832
ethz.ecitpid
pub:182137
ethz.eth
yes
en_US
ethz.availability
Open access
en_US
ethz.rosetta.installDate
2017-07-12T22:44:47Z
ethz.rosetta.lastUpdated
2019-12-06T10:53:46Z
ethz.rosetta.versionExported
true
ethz.COinS
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