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Judging Disparities: Recidivism Risk, Image Motives, and In-Group Bias on Wisconsin Criminal Courts
(2024)Center for Law & Economics Working Paper SeriesThis paper studies racial in-group disparities in Wisconsin, which has one of the highest Black-to-White incarceration rates among all U.S. states. The analysis is motivated by a model in which a judge may want to incarcerate more due to three factors: (1) taste-based preferences about the defendant’s group identity; (2) higher recidivism risk where the defendant is more likely to commit future crimes; and (3) image motives stemming from ...Working Paper -
Data-driven Power Flow Linearization: Theory
(2024)This two-part tutorial dives into the field of data-driven power flow linearization (DPFL), a domain gaining increased attention with the rise of data-centric methodologies. DPFL stands out for its higher approximation accuracy, wide adaptability, and better ability to implicitly incorporate power losses and the latest system attributes. This renders DPFL a potentially superior option for managing the significant fluctuations from renewable ...Working Paper -
On Efficiently Representing Regular Languages as RNNs
(2024)arXivRecent work by Hewitt et al. (2020) provides an interpretation of the empirical success of recurrent neural networks (RNNs) as language models (LMs). It shows that RNNs can efficiently represent bounded hierarchical structures that are prevalent in human language. This suggests that RNNs' success might be linked to their ability to model hierarchy. However, a closer inspection of Hewitt et al.'s (2020) construction shows that it is not ...Working Paper -
Mixed-Variable Graphical Modeling for Medical Record-Based Predictive Models: Learning Pressure Injury Onset in Spinal Cord Injury Individuals
(2024)Research SquareDeveloping machine learning (ML) methods for healthcare predictive modeling requires absolute explainability and transparency to build trust and accountability. Graphical models (GM) are key tools for this but face challenges like small sample sizes, mixed variables, and latent confounders. This paper presents a novel learning framework addressing these challenges by integrating latent variables using fast causal inference (FCI), accommodating ...Working Paper -
Adoption of Battery Electric Vehicles: the Role of Government Incentives and Solar PV
(2024)Economics Working Paper SeriesElectrification of the private passenger transport sector is a fundamental milestone in reducing global carbon emissions. To reach this goal, several governments introduced a series of incentive programs to encourage the adoption of battery-electric vehicles (BEVs). Two of the most widespread policies to incentivize the adoption of BEVs are discounts on the annual vehicle circulation tax and purchase rebates. This paper analyzes the causal ...Working Paper -
Targeted Transformations for Macroeconomic Forecasting
(2024)KOF Working PapersThe crisis periods of the past decades have highlighted the difficulty of forecasting economic indicators due to increased non-linearity and rapidly changing dynamics. To address this challenge, we introduce the Transform-Sparsify-Forecast (TSF) framework. The TSF framework first applies multiple transformations to each predictor to account for non-linear effects. It then dynamically applies a dimension reduction (targeting) to select ...Working Paper -
A High-Frequency GDP Indicator for Switzerland
(2024)KOF Working PapersThis paper presents a weekly GDP indicator for Switzerland, which addresses the limitations of existing economic activity indicators using alternative high-frequency data created in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. The indicator is obtained from a Bayesian mixed-frequency dynamic factor model that integrates conventional macroeconomic and alternative high-frequency data at weekly, monthly, and quarterly frequencies. By estimating ...Working Paper -
Money Creation in a Neoclassical Economy: Equilibrium Multiplicity and the Liquidity Trap
(2024)KOF Working PapersWe introduce banks that issue liquid deposits backed by bonds and capital into an otherwise standard cash-in-advance economy. Liquidity transformation by banks increases aggregate consumption and investment relative to a cash-only economy but can also lead to inefficient overinvestment. Furthermore, liquidity transformation can lead to multiple steady-state equilibria with different interest rates and real outcomes. Whenever multiple ...Working Paper -
Designing an E-Bike City
(2024)Arbeitsberichte Verkehrs- und RaumplanungEffective and timely decarbonization of urban mobility requires systemic changes to transportation systems. High-quality cycling networks are seen as one of such measures and multiple scholars have developed automated approaches for a quick generation of such interventions. However, a common shortcoming is that they mostly ignore the tradeoffs in allocating scarce road space to different modes. In this paper, we introduce an automated ...Working Paper -
On the interpretation of quantum theory as games between physicists and nature played in Minkowski spacetime
(2024)arXivIn 2019, we introduced games in Minkowski spacetime as a generalization of game theory to special relativity that subsumes games in normal form (spacelike separation) and games in extensive form (timelike separation). Many concepts including Nash equilibria naturally extend to spacetime games. We also emphasized the importance of these games to model quantum experiments such as Bell experiments and more generally any adaptive measurements. ...Working Paper