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Embracing the intuitive-analytical paradox? How intuitive and analytical decision-making drive paradoxes in simple and complex environments
(2022)OSF PreprintsResearch proposal to tackle following research questions: To what extend is unconscious intuitive decision-making in complex and uncertain conditions more accurate than conscious analytical decision-making? Is – paradoxically – analytical thinking more successful when making simple decisions and intuitive thinking when deciding in complex environments?Working Paper -
Global models for short-term earthquake forecasting and predictive skill assessment
(2020)EarthArXivWe present rigorous tests of global short-term earthquake forecasts using Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence models with two different time kernels (one with exponentially tapered Omori kernel (ETOK) and another with linear magnitude dependent Omori kernel (MDOK)). The tests are conducted with three different magnitude cutoffs for the auxiliary catalog (M3, M4 or M5) and two different magnitude cutoffs for the primary catalog (M5 or M6), ...Working Paper -
Behavioural effects and market dynamics in field and laboratory experimental asset markets
(2019)Economics Discussion PapersA vast literature investigating behavioural underpinnings of financial bubbles and crashes relies on laboratory experiments. However, it is not yet clear how findings generated in a highly artificial environment relate to the human behaviour in the wild. It is of concern that the laboratory setting may create a confound variable that impacts the experimental results. To explore the similarities and differences between human behaviour in ...Working Paper -
Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty
(2019)Economics Discussion PapersTo study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set -up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two experiments, the authors observe that quick consensus emerges early yielding pronounced mispricing, which however do not show the standard "bubble ...Working Paper