Lack of Change in the Projected Frequency and Persistence of Atmospheric Circulation Types Over Central Europe

Abstract

In recent summers, Europe experienced record‐breaking heatwaves, wildfires (in Northern Europe), and large‐scale water scarcity. Apart from anthropogenic warming, one contribution leading to such exceptionally hot weather was a weaker jet stream allowing a quasi‐stationary high‐pressure system to persist for many days. Here, we quantify changes in the frequency and persistence of the Central European large‐scale circulation types using various climate models. Independent of the circulation type, the models project warmer and drier future summer conditions in Central Europe, but no consistent shift to a more persistent summer or winter circulation. Most of the frequency and persistence changes are small and either within the internal variability or inconsistent across models. The model projections in this study do not support the claim of more persistent weather over Central Europe. Reconciling the results of different approaches and classifications is therefore critical to understand and predict changes in extreme weather over Europe.