Statistical method to identify robust building renovation choices for environmental and economic performance
Abstract
Building renovation is urgently required to decrease the energy consumption of the existing building stock and reduce greenhouse gas emissions coming from the building sector. Selecting an appropriate renovation strategy is challenging due to the long building service life and consequent uncertainties. In this paper, we propose a new framework for the robust assessment of renovation strategies in terms of environmental and economic performance of the building's life cycle. First, we identify the possible renovation strategies and define the probability distributions for 74 uncertain parameters. Second, we create an integrated workflow for Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) and Life Cycle Cost analysis (LCC) and make use of Sobol’ indices to identify a prioritization strategy for the renovation. Finally, the selected renovation scenario is assessed by metamodeling techniques to calculate its robustness. The results of three case studies of residential buildings from different construction periods show that the priority in renovation should be given to the heating system replacement, which is followed by the exterior wall insulation and windows. This result is not in agreement with common renovation practices and this discrepancy is discussed at the end of the paper. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000432339Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Building and EnvironmentVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
ElsevierSubject
Life cycle assessment; Life cycle cost; Uncertainty quantification; Building renovationOrganisational unit
03972 - Habert, Guillaume / Habert, Guillaume
03962 - Sudret, Bruno / Sudret, Bruno
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
Funding
172545 - ROBUST and RELIABLE SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT for BUILDING RENOVATION STRATEGIES (SNF)
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