Open access
Date
2022-04-26Type
- Working Paper
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Despite fierce politicization in arms-exporting democracies, we lack systematic research on mass public preferences on arms transfers. We propose that citizens either apply a deontologist (rejecting arms exports categorically) or consequentialist (trading-off economic, strategic and normative aspects) calculus of preference formation. Conducting population-representative survey experiments (N=6,617) in Germany and France (two global top-5 major arms exporters), we find that 10-15% of respondents follow deontologist considerations, a preference structure likely relevant for all foreign policies involving the use of force. Still, a vast majority shows differentiated preferences, giving largest weight to normative considerations, with assessments affected by moderating features (e.g., scenarios of just war). Expressions of deontologist preferences and a large consequentialist weight for normative factors are more pronounced in Germany compared to France, indicating a link between population preferences and elite-level strategic cultures and institutions. Last, respondents' preferences match opinion-polls on post-Russian invasion Ukraine-armament, indicating high external validity of our experiments. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000593925Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
SocArXivPublisher
Center for Open ScienceEdition / version
v3Subject
Weapons exports; Foreign policy; International trade; Public opinion; Deontologist ethics; Survey experiment; Cross-national comarisonOrganisational unit
03446 - Bernauer, Thomas / Bernauer, Thomas
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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