The role of three-dimensional fault interactions in creating complex seismic sequences
Open access
Date
2023-03-15Type
- Journal Article
Abstract
A physics-based earthquake simulator should reproduce first-order empirical power-law behaviors of magnitudes and clustering. These laws have emerged spontaneously in either discrete or low-dimension continuum simulations without power-law or stochastic heterogeneity. We show that the same emergence can occur in 3-D continuum simulations with fault interactions and rate-and-state friction. Our model approximates a strike-slip fault system as three en echelon faults. Simulations show spatio-temporally clustered earthquake sequences exhibiting characteristic Gutenberg-Richter scaling as well as empirical inter-event time distribution. The Gutenberg-Richter scaling occurs only in partial ruptures that result from fault interactions. With fault interactions, partial ruptures emerge when seismogenic width W over characteristic nucleation length L∞ is larger than 16.24, but none occur without fault interaction. The mainshock recurrence times of individual faults remain quasi-periodic. The system mainshock recurrence time is a combination of short-term Omori-type decay and Brownian passage time. Higher W/L∞ increase short-term clustering probability to at most 30%. These results indicate that physics-based multi-cycle models adequately reflect observed statistical signatures and show practical potential for long-term hazard assessment and medium-term forecasting. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000601601Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Earth and Planetary Science LettersVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
ElsevierSubject
earthquake interaction; strike-slip faults; rate-and-state friction; fault system; recurrence time; earthquake cycleFunding
20-2 FEL-19 - Seismic or Aseismic? Towards Enhanced Geothermal Systems without Large Earthquakes (ETHZ)
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