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Author
Date
2018-02-19Type
- Master Thesis
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
An increasing level of wealth and economic production is recognised to have an impact on resource depletion, greenhouse gas emissions or energy use. Several reduction targets have been introduced in Switzerland to mitigate negative effects of future development, one being the 2000-Watt Society (“2000-Watt-Gesellschaft”, 2000WS). It is known that meeting these goals can only be achieved through a stringent set of reduction measures. However, the consequences on our spatial environments of pursuing such reduction measures have largely remained unexplored.
The principal goal of this master thesis is modelling and describing the spatial effects of energy reduction measures, which would help meet the 2000WS targets. A method allowing for energy estimation from spatial data was developed and a set of scenarios devised to test economic, regulatory and behavioural components of energy reduction measures. Household space heating and commuting energy demand were chosen as energy use estimators, due to their large share in total Swiss energy use and their manifold long-term spatial implications.
An agent-based, land-use transport interaction model was used in the form of the Facility Location Choice Simulation Tool (FaLC). This tool allows for the simulation within Switzerland on the level of 2949 National Passenger Traffic Model zones and the time span 2015-2040 was chosen for the model runs.
The scenario implementations could not be fully assessed due to an unintended decline in the modelled population. The energy estimation method however, delivers plausible results for the correctly calibrated start year. A reduction in population can bring about a reduction in space heating demand, but may have reciprocal effects on commuting energy with an increase in trip relations. Although rural municipalities have a higher per capita energy consumption, metropolitan regions are the dominant consumers of energy in the household sector.
The key conclusion reached is that no single reduction measure can achieve a significant reduction to reach 2000WS goals. The most substantial impacts can be reached by focusing on measures, which target cities and their agglomerations in Switzerland. Furthermore mobility and settlement development have to be a coordinated effort, so as not to counteract each other in the final outcome. Show more
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https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000610703Publication status
publishedContributors
Examiner: Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
Examiner: van Strien, Maarten J.
Examiner: Khiali Miab, Amin
Publisher
ETH ZurichSubject
Agent based modelling; Scenario analysis; Energy policy; Spatial analysis; Traffic simulationOrganisational unit
03823 - Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne / Grêt-Regamey, Adrienne
02655 - Netzwerk Stadt u. Landschaft ARCH u BAUG / Network City and Landscape ARCH and BAUG
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ETH Bibliography
yes
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