The UV index in the 21ˢᵗ century over Thessaloniki, Greece, from measurements and simulations in relation to the Montreal Protocol
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Date
2024-01-18Type
- Conference Paper
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Abstract
The successful implementation of the Montreal Protocol in 1987 for reducing the emissions of ozone depleting substances (ODS) resulted in decreasing global atmospheric concentrations of ODS since about 1997 and, in turn, in slowing down stratospheric ozone decreases. In this study, we used measurements of spectral UV irradiance in Thessaloniki, Greece, for the period 1993-2020 and radiative transfer simulations to study the changes in UV radiation during this period, along with UV simulations for a "World Expected"and two "World Avoided"scenarios during the 21ˢᵗ century. These simulations are based on total ozone projections from two Chemistry Climate models and aerosol projections from 12 Earth System models. For 'World Expected', we assumed stratospheric ozone changes in an atmosphere that follows the Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0, while for 'World Avoided' that ODS emissions had continued to rise unobstructed. Early in the 21ˢᵗ century, differences between historical and estimated UV Index for the "World Avoided"scenarios are evident. By the mid-21st century, the mean monthly noon UV Index under clear skies is projected to reach extreme values of about 15 for the summer period, while by late-21st century, "very high"to "extreme"values were found even during winter. Show more
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Radiation Processes in the Atmosphere and OceanJournal / series
AIP Conference ProceedingsVolume
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American Institute of PhysicsEvent
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