More than three-fold increase in compound soil and air dryness across Europe by the end of 21ˢᵗ century
Open access
Date
2024-06Type
- Journal Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
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Abstract
Increases in air temperature lead to increased dryness of the air and potentially develops increased dryness in the soil. Extreme dryness (in the soil and/or in the atmosphere) affects the capacity of ecosystems for functioning and for modulating the climate. Here, we used long-term high temporal resolution (daily) soil moisture (SM) and vapor pressure deficit (VPD) data of high spatial resolution (∼0.1° × 0.1°) to show that compared to the reference period (1950–1990), the overall frequency of extreme soil dryness, extreme air dryness, and extreme compound dryness (i.e., co-occurrence of extreme soil dryness and air dryness) has increased by 1.2-fold [0.8,1.6] (median [10ᵗʰ,90ᵗʰ percentile], 1.6-fold [1,2.3], and 1.7-fold [0.9,2.5], respectively, over the last 31 years (1991–2021) across Europe. Our results also indicate that this increase in frequency of extreme compound dryness (between reference and 1991–2021 period) is largely due to increased SM-VPD coupling across Northern Europe, and due to decreasing SM and/or increasing VPD trend across Central and Mediterranean Europe. Furthermore, under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5) emission scenario, this increase in frequency of extreme compound dryness would be 3.3-fold [2.0,5.8], and 4.6-fold [2.3,11.9] by mid-21ˢᵗ century (2031–2065) and late-21ˢᵗ century (2066–2100), respectively. Additionally, we segregated the changes in frequency of extreme dryness across the most recent (year 2021) land cover types in Europe to show that croplands, broadleaved forest, and urban areas have experienced more than twice as much extreme dryness during 1990–2021 compared to the reference period of 1990–2021, which based on the future projection data will increase to more than three-fold by mid 21ˢᵗ century. Such future climate-change induced increase in extreme dryness could have negative implications for functioning of ecosystems and compromise their capacity to adapt to rapidly rising dryness levels. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000668478Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
Weather and Climate ExtremesVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
ElsevierSubject
Soil moisture; Vapor pressure deficit; EURO-CORDEX; ERA5-Land; E-OBSOrganisational unit
03648 - Buchmann, Nina / Buchmann, Nina
Funding
ETH-27 19-1 - Forest Vulnerability to Extreme and Repeated Climatic Stress (FEVER) (ETHZ)
198094 - Unravel the changing contributions of abiotic vs. biotic drivers of ecosystem gas exchange under weather extremes (SNF)
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