Human population and atmospheric carbon dioxide growth dynamics: Diagnostics for the future
Open access
Date
2014Type
- Review Article
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics
Abstract
We analyze the growth rates of human population and of atmospheric carbon dioxide by comparing the relative merits of two benchmark models, the exponential law and the finite-time-singular (FTS) power law. The later results from positive feedbacks, either direct or mediated by other dynamical variables, as shown in our presentation of a simple endogenous macroeconomic dynamical growth model describing the growth dynamics of coupled processes involving human population (labor in economic terms), capital and technology (proxies by CO2 emissions). Human population in the context of our energy intensive economies constitutes arguably the most important underlying driving variable of the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. Using some of the best databases available, we perform empirical analyses confirming that the human population on Earth has been growing super-exponentially until the mid-1960s, followed by a decelerated sub-exponential growth, with a tendency to plateau at just an exponential growth in the last decade with an average growth rate of 1.0% per year. In contrast, we find that the content of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere has continued to accelerate super-exponentially until 1990, with a transition to a progressive deceleration since then, with an average growth rate of approximately 2% per year in the last decade. To go back to CO2 atmosphere contents equal to or smaller than the level of 1990 as has been the broadly advertised goals of international treaties since 1990 requires herculean changes: from a dynamical point of view, the approximately exponential growth must not only turn to negative acceleration but also negative velocity to reverse the trend. Show more
Permanent link
https://doi.org/10.3929/ethz-b-000092332Publication status
publishedExternal links
Journal / series
The European Physical Journal Special TopicsVolume
Pages / Article No.
Publisher
EDP SciencesOrganisational unit
03738 - Sornette, Didier (emeritus) / Sornette, Didier (emeritus)
Notes
It was possible to publish this article open access thanks to a Swiss National Licence with the publisher.More
Show all metadata
ETH Bibliography
yes
Altmetrics